team 2 in the sig, a league where we're finally able to add free agents the weekend after the all-star break. Those transactions cost $ of course, and I'm trying to figure out 1) if it's worth it for me to invest even more $ in this season or start playing for next year or 2) if I should trade any further to set myself up for the 2nd half (& if so, who? where?), or 3) deal my larger salary guys for keepers for '09.

My own less-than-objective take on this team is that I've still got a shot, probably not at first but maybe for a top 5 position. Yes, I'm in 10th place overall. Yes, I'm 30 points (yikes) out of 5th place. Yes, I'm 42 points out of 1st place (dbl yikes), but I think I've finally got the horses to make a run. Or am I just fooling myself?

In every category:

HRs (9th place) but that should improve w/Mi.Cabrera & Francoeur coming around & Tex being Tex & the others doing their part, right?
OBP (9th place) most of the teams are tightly bunched. If overall I had .348 instead of .338, I'd gain four points in the standings.
Runs (9th place) once again, should improve in the 2nd half, but I am 31 runs behind the teams tied for 7th in this category
RBI (7th place) very close to the 6th place team, which trails the 5th place team by 14 rbis.
NetSteals (2nd place) partly b/c I had both Crawford & J.Reyes on the team at one time, partly b/c Taveras is still running. If he's healthy & Damon comes back, I'm only off the 1st place pace by 3. Only ahead of 3rd place by 4.

So, let's say conservatively I can gain 7-10 points in the offensive categories. Anyone see any more pickup than that? Maybe I am fooling myself, but pitching is where I feel like I can make up the most ground, I think.

ERA (dead last; 12th) overall at 4.59 Hopefully w/the starters I have now (& after I jettison Wolf), this can improve dramatically. Maybe to mid-table? 6 more points in the standings?
Ks (7th place) now that I'm so starter-heavy, this should improve a bit. Maybe all the way to 4th place, pick up 3 more points.
Saves (6th place) If I stay in this season, I'll try to pick up Balfour on the 20th for Wolf. That should help me stay competitive & possibly get to 4th place (w/a good bit of luck) 2 point gain
Wins (11th place) I hate this category. But, the teams ahead of me are tightly bunched, & I'm one good week out of possibly getting to 4th place. With the starters I have, it's not impossible. Say I get 7 points here.
WHIP (11th place) once again, w/Peavy heathy & the other starts I've added, could shoot up to 4th place here, gain 7 pts.

That's a potential gain in pitching points of 25? With the 7-10 point possible gain in hitting points (and not taking into account the loss of other teams' points as I make these gains), I could be lined up for a spot in the top 5?

Have I analyzed this correctly? Am I looking too optimistically at the potential gains? If nothing else, it helps to see it all mapped out like this, but let me know your thoughts (where to upgrade, what to sacrifice, etc).

Thanks in advance,

just curious...is there some monetary reward for finishing in the top 5? any benefit (draft postion/etc)?

reason i ask...if you you can't finish first rather than scramble to finish 3-5 (with no significant reward other than accomplishing an improvement in your standings) why not try and put yourself in a position to win next year?

yes, top 5 are the money spots. should have clarified motivation. I've also spent (typical of me in this league) the 2nd most on transactions this year so far.

5th place, I'd probably have a net $ loss for the season, but not as dramatic as finishing out of the $.

Also, I hate acknowledging that it's time to throw in the towel, and thus I need y'all's help.

And then when McGowan goes out & lays an(other) egg tonight, and whatever hope I had this afternoon spills all over the floor.

Ok, ERA and WHIP are the two you feel you can gain the most in. How far away in ERA and WHIP are you from the next bunch?

I was going to say that ERA and WHIP get harder to make ground in as the year goes on. Your pitchers would have to record a lot of good outings (not that they can't) to lower it.

Wins is a crapshoot... If you feel you're in the mix, then you're likely just as 'in the mix' as the next guy.

K's are one of the easier categories to gain in.

That all being said, if you are close to a bunch in ERA and WHIP, that would make the world of difference.

I wonder about the ERA and WHIP points and how they're bunched. You'd probably need to average an ERA of 3 the rest of the way just to get into respectability (around the 370 range), but if there are a bunch of teams bunched higher than that you might just punt. Man, .459 is way back there and like Game said it is hard to make up that much ground. How are you so far back with that roster???? Doesn't seem right!

It pains me to see the team so low in the standings w/that roster, but the following knuckleheads either didn't produce as expected or did a lot of damage to my numbers when they were on my roster:

Kearns, Milledge, Swisher, C.Duncan, Jose Reyes in April & May, Brett Myers, bad D.Cabrera, bad Contreras, R.Soriano, Betancourt, Boof, bad Buerhle, McGowan, etc. Half a roster of bums. Wah.

and in this league you can't replace a player except through trade, injury or demotion until FAAB opens up after the all-star break. Pretty boring/frustrating to me, so I may not carry on next year, which is also diminishing my interest in punting.

I'll give it a few more weeks & try not spend loads on transactions before I completely give up, but I'm thinking my ERA & WHIP comeback estimates may have been unrealistic, especially after a night like last night, when Slowey, Sonnanstine & Rauch combined for a 12.27 ERA & 2.55 WHIP in 11 innings w/all of 3 Ks. Ouch.

5th in ERA is 3.89 & mine is (still last) 4.63; tied for 4th in WHIP is 1.29; mine is (still 11th) 1.42.

It may just be one of those years when every move I make turns to sludge in this league. (thankfully, RR Founder's has been different story so far). For example, I eagerly DL'd McGowan yesterday & picked up the hot speculative saves flavor of the month & K machine, Balfour. Then he goes & loses the game to the Yankess w/in the hour. In their 2nd starts for me my (supposed saviors for the 2nd half) Slowey & Sonnanstine get hit more often than Paris Hilton. Etc., etc. etc.

To me, 4.64 and 1.42 seem like lost causes but you never know. Looks like you'll improve but I might take that pitching number (25) and maybe divide it in half, which leaves you with a 20 point or so total gain. But maybe 5th falters a bit and you might get into striking distance???